Diese Studie beleuchtet und analysiert die aktuellen Perspektiven der Weltwirtschaft vor dem Hintergrund des Russland-Ukraine-Krieges. Mit dem Angriffskrieg Russlands am 24. Februar 2022 ergibt sich eine Zeitenwende. Gegen Russland haben viele Lander umfassende Sanktionen verhangt, nicht immer durchdacht. Grosse Fluchtlingsbewegungen und zugleich starke Energiepreis- und Weizenpreis-Erhoehungen sowie hoher Inflationsdruck ergeben sich weltweit. Von Seiten einiger OEkonomen ist ein deutsches und EU-seitiges Gas-Importembargo gegenuber Russland vorgeschlagen worden - bei uberschaubaren oekonomischen Effekten. Diese Sicht ist zweifelhaft, zumal mit Gegenmassnahmen Russlands bei einem Boykott von Energieexporten zu rechnen ist. Bei der Russland-Analyse des Westens gibt es kritische Punkte; Putins neue Ideologie war seit 2016 erkennbar. Die Weltwirtschaft durfte vor einem Zerfall in regionale Handelsbloecke stehen und die Wirkungsmacht wichtiger internationaler Organisationen ist gemindert: zum Nachteil von Wachstum, Innovation und Stabilitatsverankerung. Eine EU-Ukraine-Erweiterung ist als kritische Herausforderung zu sehen.

This book presents a cutting-edge analysis of the economic effects and challenges of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with a special focus on EU sanctions on Russian energy and Ukraine's political relationship with the European Union in a global context. Welfens outlines key macroeconomic perspectives on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting in particular how sanctions posed by the international community will have a wider economic impact than what has so far been envisaged. The book discusses the effects of Russian gas supply boycotts against Western countries as well as global effects of an EU energy import boycott on Russia, especially for China and the Asian continent. An innovative proposal to cut electricity prices is presented. It also explores the challenges to relations between the EU, China and Russia caused by the invasion, the effects of the unfolding refugee crisis (within a post-Brexit EU), military and humanitarian aid pledges to Ukraine, and the risks of reduced multilateralism within the world economy as a direct result of the war. The book also analyses the risks and benefits of potential enlargement of the EU to integrate Ukraine as a member state. The topics covered by the book are all set within a long-run view of diplomatic and economic relations between the West, Russia and Ukraine. The factors analysed here provide a new, broader picture of the international effects of the conflict, as well as its potential implications for policy design as we enter a new global order marked by the Russo-Ukrainian war. The book will be of interest to researchers and policy-makers working in international economics, new political economy, European politics and integration, and macroeconomics more broadly.

This book takes a new look at the golden age in neoclassical growth theory and explores in detail sustainability and optimum growth in China, the US and Europe. Innovation, foreign direct investment, trade and growth dynamics are key elements in modern economies - including perspectives on green growth and aspects of the knowledge production function in the context of multinational companies. As such the book considers the role of foreign direct investment in a modified growth model and discusses innovation in an enhanced Mundell-Fleming macro model. Moreover, for the first time it directly links a knowledge production function to the macro production function in a broader context, including real money balances in the production function. It shows - also with empirical relevance - that FDI inward stocks relative to the GDP of host countries, the number of researchers and per capita income are relevant drivers of new knowledge and the stock of knowledge, respectively. This new Schumpeterian theoretical approach lends itself to important policy conclusions for both OECD members and newly industrialized countries.

This study develops a new indicator for national and global sustainability. The main components of the EIIW-vita indicator are: the share of renewable energy, the genuine savings rate and the relative "green export" position of the respective countries; it is in line with OECD requirements on composite indicators. As green exports are related to technological progress and environmental-friendly products, there is also a Schumpeterian perspective of this indicator. An extended version furthermore looks at water productivity. The analysis highlights the BRIICS countries as well as the US, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, the UK and Japan. Moreover the special challenges and dynamics of ASEAN countries and Asia are discussed. The book derives key implications for economic and environmental policy and shows that the new global sustainability indicator is not only relevant for green progress, but also useful as a signal for international investors. The construction of the EIIW-vita global sustainability indicator is such that investors, citizens and governments can easily interpret the results. Correlation analysis of the new sustainability indicator with the human development index indicates complementarity, so that a new hybrid superindicator can be constructed. Sustainability rhetoric dominates environmental policy. This fresh assessment of key "pillars" of sustainable economic performance and growth is a valuable contribution to greening the economy, the leitmotiv of the latest Rio Earth Summit. The book places the discussion of sustainability on solid data. The rather surprising results of its new sustainability index should make policy makers rethink their environmental and economic strategies. Prof. Dr. Peter Bartelmus Columbia University, New York Many people put the economy first when sustainability concerns are raised, while environmental indicators are often developed without a sense of socio-economic performance. This important new book bridges the gap. It sheds light on crucial indicators such as renewable energies, exporting green goods and services, genuine savings, and water productivity. And it helps to observe the impressive changes at a global scale and in countries such as China. A must read for all experts interested in those issues. Prof. Dr. Raimund Bleischwitz University College London

Economic globalization is a complex phenomenon where the links between social security expenditures and globalization are not well understood so far. This study summarizes new key findings and highlights new theoretical insights in the field of social security systems, labor standards, taxation and economic globalization. Moreover, new thoughts on the links between social security systems and migration as well as between free trade areas and social market economy development are presented. The book analyzes the role of a changing age dependency using a Branson model and it derives implications for the stock market price index, the exchange rate and the interest rate. Economic globalization needs to be politically managed and through the Transatlantic Banking Crisis and the Euro Crisis the need to more carefully draw the rules of the game for financial globalization has been highlighted. Unstable financial markets have a large potential to undermine social market economies and social security systems. The rising income inequalities within countries raise more policy challenges for Europe than for the US.

This study develops a new indicator for national and global sustainability. The main components of the EIIW-vita indicator are: the share of renewable energy, the genuine savings rate and the relative "green export" position of the respective countries; it is in line with OECD requirements on composite indicators. As green exports are related to technological progress and environmental-friendly products, there is also a Schumpeterian perspective of this indicator. An extended version furthermore looks at water productivity. The analysis highlights the BRIICS countries as well as the US, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, the UK and Japan. Moreover the special challenges and dynamics of ASEAN countries and Asia are discussed. The book derives key implications for economic and environmental policy and shows that the new global sustainability indicator is not only relevant for green progress, but also useful as a signal for international investors. The construction of the EIIW-vita global sustainability indicator is such that investors, citizens and governments can easily interpret the results. Correlation analysis of the new sustainability indicator with the human development index indicates complementarity, so that a new hybrid superindicator can be constructed. Sustainability rhetoric dominates environmental policy. This fresh assessment of key "pillars" of sustainable economic performance and growth is a valuable contribution to greening the economy, the leitmotiv of the latest Rio Earth Summit. The book places the discussion of sustainability on solid data. The rather surprising results of its new sustainability index should make policy makers rethink their environmental and economic strategies. Prof. Dr. Peter Bartelmus Columbia University, New York Many people put the economy first when sustainability concerns are raised, while environmental indicators are often developed without a sense of socio-economic performance. This important new book bridges the gap. It sheds light on crucial indicators such as renewable energies, exporting green goods and services, genuine savings, and water productivity. And it helps to observe the impressive changes at a global scale and in countries such as China. A must read for all experts interested in those issues. Prof. Dr. Raimund Bleischwitz University College London

High unemployment rates in the period of an internationalization of economies and an intensified technological competition are the main problems that exist in most EU countries. Taking stock of unemployment patterns, technological trends and employment opportunities in the EU and the US is crucial for the reform debate in Europe. In continental Europe, major problems are an insufficient creation of new firms in innovative technology fields, inadequate labor market developments and inconsistent R&D policies. Founded on new data evaluations, the book presents an innovative analysis of these topics and shows opportunities for reforms.

Edward M. Graham, Nina Oding and Paul J. J. Welfens Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have achieved sustained economic growth in first half of the new decade in the 2V^ century. EU ac cession countries which have joined the EU have benefited mainly from high capital inflows, a reduced risk premium - with shadow effects of this already occurring in the years before explicit membership - and growing trade. While system transformation has undermined trade between Eastern Europe and Russia for several years there are medium prospects for grow ing trade in the whole of Europe. Russia's case, however, is different from the EU accession countries as a major driving force of economic dynamics is the oil and gas sector which has considerable backward and forward linkages. At the same time this sector apparently is politically quite sensi tive. The Transatlantic Transformation and Economic Development Re search Group has organized several workshops within a major interna tional research project. The project is devoted to analyzing the internatio nalization of the Russian economy and the associated changes in major policy fields. This book contains the revised analytical papers from the St. Petersburg conference in 2003 when the city celebrated its 300 year anniversary. We are very grateful to the Leontief Center for excellent organization of the conference. The paper by Paul J. J.

Economic development has cyclical dynamics and long-term dynamics - the latter are typically related to demographical changes, innovation and long-term insti- tional changes in open economies. Financial markets - that means mainly capital markets - and labor markets are affected in OECD countries both by innovations and institutional reforms. As regards demographics ageing is a typical challenge on both sides of the Atlantic, and pension reforms in industrialized countries have placed greater emphasis on capital markets than in previous decades. Innovation dynamics certainly are also quite important for all high wage OECD countries. The Lisbon Agenda has put particular emphasis on more growth, higher innovation dynamics and better exploitation of the advantages of a digitally networked society. Traditionally, the US has a lead in global innovations, and the US policy certainly has contributed to the American technological leadership. There still is a per capita income gap in favor of the US and the US labor market situation also looks relatively favorable, but in the ?ve years since 2001 employment growth in the euro area was higher than that of the US. The euro area is, however, a rather heterogeneous set of countries which differ in terms of institutions, attitudes and reform progress - and everywhere governments are aware that there have to be reforms, not least in the context of globalization which bring a more complex and dynamic spatial structure of value-added.

Financial capital, whether mediated through the financial market or Foreign Direct Investment has been a key factor in European economic growth. This book examines the interaction between European and global financial integration and analyses the dynamics of the monetary sector and the real economy in Europe. The key analytical focus is on the theoretical and empirical dynamics of financial markets in Europe, however, it also provides regional case studies of key institutional developments and lessons from foreign direct investment. There is a broad range of findings for Central, Eastern and Western Europe as well as EU Partner Countries. Crucially the analysis includes new approaches and options for solving the transatlantic banking crisis and suggests policy innovations for a world with unstable financial markets.

Modern macroeconomics suffers from an unclear link between short-term Keynesian analysis and long-term growth modelling. This book presents a new link between monetary analysis and growth modelling in open economies. Structural change, innovations and growth are considered from a new perspective. With respect to economic policy - in particular innovation policy - the analysis implies major changes, concerning both EU countries and other leading OECD economies.

John T. Addison and Paul J. J. Welfens Because inflation seems moribund in OECD countries, stubborn unemployment became the top policy priority of the 1990s. Unemployment has increased in many countries, reaching critical levels for unskilled and young workers in most continental EU countries. Europe's employment performance has continued to lag that in North America. The U. S. in particular achieved a remarkable combination of low inflation and full employment in the late 1990s, at a time when the EU suf fered from record unemployment rates, even if inflation was remarkably low. Since the 1980s, the consensus view among economists is that structural unem ployment plays a much more important role than cyc1ical unemployment in Europe, but that labour costs (wage costs plus nonwage costs) are also part of Europe's labour market problem. Most EU countries rely on a pay-as-you-go pub lic pension system. Contribution rates gradually increased in the 1980s and 1990s, when the share of young workers in overall employment was dec1ining and life expectancy increasing. Rising nonwage costs from the pension system are but one important feature of labour markets in Europe. Given the remarkable dynamics of labour markets, new entry into the labour force, labour turnover, and changes in employment characteristics, one has to also search for other factors behind sus tained unemployment. High unemployment is critical for EU countries, where one can point to rela tively few positive developments after 1975. The U. K."

Economic globalization is a complex phenomenon where the links between social security expenditures and globalization are not well understood so far. This study summarizes new key findings and highlights new theoretical insights in the field of social security systems, labor standards, taxation and economic globalization. Moreover, new thoughts on the links between social security systems and migration as well as between free trade areas and social market economy development are presented. The book analyzes the role of a changing age dependency using a Branson model and it derives implications for the stock market price index, the exchange rate and the interest rate. Economic globalization needs to be politically managed and through the Transatlantic Banking Crisis and the Euro Crisis the need to more carefully draw the rules of the game for financial globalization has been highlighted. Unstable financial markets have a large potential to undermine social market economies and social security systems. The rising income inequalities within countries raise more policy challenges for Europe than for the US.

Paul J.J. Welfens and Holger C. Wolf While the economies of Asia and, more recently, South as well as North America have enjoyed sustained high growth, the growth performance of western Europe and in particular continental Europe has been rather modest. Coupled with sizable improvements in labor productivity and - at best - steady capital productivity, growth proved insufficient to sustain employment levels, much less to replicate the US job creation success. Relative inflation performance has been much better: in the run-up to European Monetary Union inflation rates have dramatically converged towards the lower end of the distribution while risk premia on formerly high inflation economies have fallen. Yet, looking forward, the undoubted success in achieving price stability is mitigated by the lackluster growth -and in particular employment -performance. Indeed, the relative little attention paid to initiatives directed at raising economic growth is startling, not only in the light of the US policy record but also in light of the remarkable rebound of those European economies which have aggressively tackled the structural problems, most prominently the UK and Ireland.

Economic globalization has intensified since the 1980s and created faster channels of international interdependence and an accelerating technology race. In this new asymmetric world economy the EU is facing a dynamic and flexible US system which takes advantage of the global quest for foreign direct investment. Innovation policies in the EU - in particular in Germany - are found to be rather inadequate. There are also new theoretical challenges where a "structural macro model" and a Schumpetrian model of innovation and full employment are presented as new approaches. Besides theoretical challenges the increasing global dynamics raise new problems of international policy coordination which could lead to unsustainable economic globalization.

The creation of the European Central Bank and the Euro have brought new challenges to EU integration and economic policy. This book looks into issues of monetary and factor market policies. The analysis presents new theoretical and empirical research on the current decline of the Euro. Issues regarding exchange rate policies and international economic relations are also addressed.

Russia has embarked upon a difficult process of systemic transformation and economic opening up. While the initial strong GDP decline seemed to have ended in 1997, the real development was facing even more difficult problems as output declined sharply after the Ruble and banking crisis of August 1998: inflation started to increase again, exports and imports were falling, capital flight increasing and unemployment rising. There is broad disappointment in Russia regarding the transformation failure in 1998 since so many people had hoped that the end of the Soviet command economy would bring democracy, prosperity and international integration. While Poland has been able to double per capita income in the 1990s it has fallen by 50% in Russia and this despite considerable IMF involvement and some (modest) support from other international organizations. What were the reasons for transformation failure in the 1990s? What are the ingredients for long term sustainable transformation? What are the internal and international requirements to avoid a second - possibly tragic - failure of transformation in Russia? An international group of researchers has focussed on these problems during a two-year research project financed by the Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach Foundation. A series of papers were presented at workshops in Potsdam, Bonn and Moscow in 1999 where this book is devoted to four important issues: the Russian transformation crisis, the topic of restructuring, the need for stabilizing Russia and the requirements for modernizing Russia.

Economic globalization has intensified on the basis of new international links, especially in the field of foreign direct investment, financial capital flows and telecommunications liberalization. These and other developments have reinforced international interdependence and raise new issues for international organizations as well as for strategic behavior of major actors. Based on historical perspectives of evolution of major organizations and the latest developments in the 1990s the analysis focus on financial market dynamics, monetary issues and labor market aspects. Reform options for selected international organizations are discussed including aspects of trade, foreign investment and international externalities. Game theoretic concepts are also applied.

Socialist economies in Eastern Europe have collapsed and em- barked upon market-oriented reforms. The causes of the demise of centrally planned economies are analyzed and the basic challenges of systemic tranformation discussed. Negative income and wealth effects as well as distribution issues make adjustment extremely difficult. The fundamental roles of privatization and foreign investment are adressed. Foreign economic liberalization is considered to be of centralimportance for a growth-oriented adjustment path in a stage of conflict-prone policy and options. Politico-economic aspects of the new European developments in addition to North-South issues are analyzed. Difficult choices await decison-makers in economic policy and the business community in Eastern Europe and in leading market economies.

Russia and many other transition countries are now facing the challenges of opening up, restructuring, and modernizing their economies, which requires addressing numerous institutional weaknesses and supply-side distortions. The papers in this collection examine these issues both in Russia and from a regional perspective, drawing on the experience of other reforming countries. Aspects addressed include the implications of trade and capital flows, the process of labor market reform, financial market development, productivity growth, and innovation dynamics. The dynamics of the reform process are also studied in the context of new political economy models.

Information & communication technology (ICT) and the automotive sector are two of the most important industries in the EU and the US. The EU's eastern expansion and economic globalization have reinforced competition on the one hand; on the other hand the importance of outsourcing and off-shoring has increased. Against this background the intensification of innovation dynamics becomes crucial - and with them the role of regional innovation clusters. The analysis examines seven regions and six EU countries. The focus is on cluster and network dynamics in both industries, as regional ICT clusters are playing an increasingly central role in many European regions. Specialization and structural change in the automotive sector are highlighted, and new strategic approaches for multinational companies and changes in policy options are identified.

Paul J. J. Welfens European monetary union has been discussed for more than three decades and is likely to be realized in 1999. One may anticipate generous interpretations of the fiscal convergence criteria. Such generosity consistent with the Maastricht Treaty might impair the credibility of the ECB and the stability of the Euro, respectively, despite the fact that inflation is a monetary phenomenon and has little to do with government deficits, unless they were financed via the printing press, which is excluded in the Maastricht Treaty. The European Commission's forecast of spring 1997 suggests that Italy will have problems in joining the EMU starter group as the is expected to be 3. 2% in 1997 and even 3. 9% in 1998. A Italian deficitlGDP ratio fully developed EMU group (with all 15 cowltries included) would represent 38% of the OECD GDP, slightly higher than the U. S. with 33% (Japan 21%). The exports/GDP ratio of EU countries is 30%, the ratio with respect to exports outside the EU would be 10% (Japan, U. S. 8%). The share of the U. S. dollar in international currency reserves fell from 67% to 40% in 1995, while the share of European currencies increased from 13% to 37%. Prior to the EMU, market participants have to anticipate whether a transition to 1999 will bring windfall losses or gains in various bond markets.

Competition in network industries faces particular problems which are analyzed from both a theoretical and policy perspective. Issues of vertical integration, deregulation and privatization are covered. While competition and privatization are rapidly unfolding in telecommunications in Western and Eastern Europe, energy and railway transportation represent sectors of more gradual liberalization. The different market characteristics of telecommunications, energy and transportation raise consistency problems in the fields of deregulation, investment strategies and internationalization. While transformation policies create opportunities for liberalization in Eastern Europe and Russia the latter shows critical problems in ending monopoly and state ownership. Network industries could be subject to competition and promise major investment opportunities plus consumer benefits.

EU monetary integration was reinforced in the 1980s when macroeconomic convergence and a dominant role of the German Bundesbank created the basis for relatively stable exchange rates and increasing EU trade volumes. The analysis here focuses on the EMS crisis of 1992/93, the topic of optimum currency areas and the problem of fiscal policies and regional stabilization in Europe, the US and Canada. This book gives an assessment of the EMS developments and shows how financial market liberalization as well as the EU single market project affect the process of economic and monetary union. The role of currency substitution and problems of the Bundesbank's monetary policy control in a changing international system are evaluated.

After a decade of Eurosclerosis the EC is moving with renewed economic growth and increasing multinational investment toward a single European market under the heading "Project 1992". The creation of a single EC market creates dynamic adjustment needs and opens up new opportunities for international business in a period of intensified global competition and dramatic politico-economic changes. Since the mid-1980s Eastern Europe is undergoing a radical shift towards market-based economic systems -a difficult and fragile development so far which is further complicated by economic and political unification of Germany in central Europe. After the era of British and, later, U. S. leadership in multinational investment German and Japanese multinational companies are becoming more influential players worldwide. Firms from Germany playa special role because German unification of 1990 implies a bigger home market, but also the diversion of total investment activities towards the greater German home market. While the political divide of Europe has ceased to exist, the economic division is becoming more apparent, and it could indeed transitorily increase because the EC 1992 project primarily generates growth impulses in Western Europe, while systemic transformations in Eastern Europe reduce output growth in the short term.